|
Ukraine has almost completed the harvesting campaign, and to date faces the height of the new wave of the autumn filed works – the sowing campaign of winter crops. In the current year, the autumn sowing campaign in Ukraine met rather difficult conditions, due to the deficit of circulating assets of agricultural producers (low level of governmental support, high interest rates of bank credits) and unfavorable weather conditions. In the current material, we would like to concentrate on main tendencies of the present sowing campaign of winter crops for the harvest-2010. The characteristics is made on the basis of the polling of representative sampling of agricultural enterprises, realized within the bounds of the study “Ukraine: sowing campaign-2010. Forecast of harvests of main agricultural crops”. Our agency provides the study during September period of the current year.
The study includes the quantitative polling of sampling of Ukrainian agricultural enterprises, and the forecasts of our agency concerning harvests of grains and oilseeds in 2010. The research represents the polling of 400 large-scale and medium-sized agricultural producers of grains and oilseeds in Ukraine with the land bank of over 300 ha.
Medium-sized agricultural producers with the land bank from 1 to 5 thsd ha formed the base of the sampling – 47% of all questioned respondents. Besides, according to parameters of the representative sampling, the agency questioned other 30% of agricultural enterprises with land areas starting from 300 ha to 1 thsd ha, and also 23% of large-scale economies, which own land areas of over 5 thsd ha. Ukraine still continues the tendency of agglomeration of agricultural enterprises, the share of large-scale enterprises increases every year.
In the current year, the agency provides the study at two main stages. At the first stage, main tasks of the study include the following aims: the determination of the sowing plans of winter crops (wheat, barley, rye and rapeseed), volumes of fertilizers and plant protectors application, sources of financing of the autumn sowing campaign. Besides, the study will show the rate of companies-suppliers of seed material, mineral fertilizers and plant protectors.
The second stage of the study provides polling of medium-sized and large-scale agricultural producers beginning from the second half of February till the first half of March. The targets of the second stage of the study include the following specifications and determinations: results of the sowing campaign of winter crops and estimation of the condition of agricultural crops, plans of the sowing campaign of spring crops, forecasts of harvests of main grains (winter and spring wheat, winter and spring barley, winter and spring rye, maize) and oilseeds (sunflower, winter and spring rapeseed, soybean) in 2010, prospects of the season 2009/10 ÌY (potential of consumption and exports), and the estimation of the current financial condition of agricultural producers and possible prospects, main influential factors of the current economic condition of agricultural producers. Besides, the study will indicate the most and least profitable agricultural crops, volumes of fertilizers and plant protectors application, sources of financing of the sowing and harvesting campaigns, and provide the rating of companies-suppliers of seed material, mineral fertilizers and plant protectors. We will provide generalized resumes and forecasts concerning the harvest-2010 in qualitative and quantitative concept, and prospects of the industry development in the current economic conditions, basing on the received information.
The majority of agricultural enterprises of Ukraine realized the autumn sowing campaign at the expense of own resources, and did not draw additional financing sources. At the same time, several enterprises had to partially use loan proceeds (bank credits, resources of potential buyers and etc.), the number of such enterprises totals nearly 5% only, according to our estimations. For example, according to: the results of the study “Sowing campaign-2009”, held at the beginning of the current year, 27% of agrarians used loan proceeds. Actually, the number of companies, depending on extra-budgetary resources lowered by 22%. At the same time, the number of enterprises, relying on own resources, grew from 68 to 89%.
According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine, as of the beginning of September, enterprises of the agro industrial complex took out loans at the sum of nearly 31% of the credit volumes, taken during the same period of the previous year. Only 1513 enterprises took credits, short-term loans formed the major part of the general volume of taken credits (71% from the general; volume of attracted credit resources). Interest rates of the bank credits varied within the range of 12-39%.
Also, according to the official data of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine, as of October 8, agrarians sowed winter grains throughout the areas of 6.1 mln ha, which totaled 78% from the forecast. In the current season, the sowing rates of winter grains exceed the previous year indices by 10%, rapeseed sowing campaign exceeded the sowing plan by 5% (the forecast – 1.26 mln ha, the real sowing areas – 1.32 mln ha).
Agrarians are still interested in such winter grains as wheat, barley rapeseed, but lowered their interest in rye. In the current year, many agrarians lowered their sowing areas of rye (21% of the study respondents) or denied form the grain sowing campaign (5%). Unfavorable weather conditions, especially the deficit of moisture in the soil, assisted to the reduction of winter grains sowing areas by several agrarians.
During the polling realization, several respondents declared about own complete cancellation of winter grains sowing campaign in the current season. The lack of money resources for realization of the sowing campaign due to the limited access to bank credits, and the low level of prices for grains became the main reasons of such decisions. Besides, the growth of prices for material and equipment also played the important role in the situation, agrarians face the strict choice: either investing in the harvest-2010, or continue harvesting campaigns of maize, sunflower and etc.
Thus, the volume and qualitative indices of the next year harvest will show the results of the deficit of floating assets of agrarians. To date, agrarians increased the share of usage of seed material of the domestic selection or own-produced seed material by 12% compared to the previous polling data, the number of enterprises, which denied from fertilizer application, grew to 22% from the questioned respondents. Of course, these data will be corrected, besides we should always pay attention to the weather factor. Our agency will provide the first forecasts of grains and oilseeds harvests in April.
As a reminder, the first stage of the study “Ukraine: sowing campaign-2010. Forecast of harvests of main agricultural crops in Ukraine in 2010” will issue on October 20, 2009 (Russian-language version), and November 2, 2009 (English-language version). The final issue date of the complete version of the study is April 15, 2010 (Russian-language version), and April 30, 2010 (English-language version).
Anna Burka, analyst of ÀPÊ-Inform Agency
|
